We are back in the swing of things here at the NCDA and it’s time for OU to host the first Bobcat Bash! Hopefully we’ve all had time to recover from the turbulent BEAST VI tournament, and the whirlwind Super Bowl. This could prove to be a battleground for lower-tier teams to show what they’ve got, as well as a controversial Central Michigan team to prove to us that they are still a force to be reckoned with in the league.
Central Michigan
While they sit at a controversial #2 in the Gonzalez Rankings and are the odds on favorite coming into the weekend, it all depends on what CMU team we see at the tournament. Will we see the methodical architects of dissection that came to the 2016 National Tournament? I for one believe that this team has what it takes to prove the naysayers wrong and show us all why they belong in the #2 spot. They will compete against Western Kentucky, Kent State and the hosts in Ohio University. If they aren’t careful, the Golden Flashes or the Hilltoppers could pull a fast one on ’em. That being said, don’t be surprised if the Chippewas show up in dominant fashion and go 3-0.
Kent State
The Golden Flashes just keep rising to the occasion and in my opinion, are one of the most underrated teams in the NCDA currently. They have a lot to prove this tournament, Captain Cassie Weaver believes that they should be ranked higher, this is their chance to prove to us why. Kent will be bringing close to 20 to this tournament, if I’m not mistaken. So I expect them to play with purpose and possibly upset a top team.
Western Kentucky
The Hilltoppers are a very good team, and one of my favorites to play. This tournament may prove to be a great day for them or a disappointment. They won’t have a full team at their disposal. It will hurt them greatly, since most teams in attendance will have more than a full roster. This will be good practice for them to play with lower numbers for a possible nationals scenario where they might get understaffed.
Baldwin Wallace
I am so excited to play these guys again! They are a very talented team and a great group of guys who love to have fun. This is their first tournament of the season, after some disappointing dropouts of some previous tournaments. Look for some big changes from last year’s roster and maybe some surprising young talent. I expect them to come out of the gates swinging.
Bowling Green
BGSU has been proving that they are solid competitors this season and are only improving. They are also bringing a full roster, so they will be fresh and rested for most games. They are a great team and great people, but play aggressively and with great purpose. Look for their experienced players to make some big moves.
Ohio University
These guys and gals are making waves in the Dodgeball community and for good reason, they have been getting some wins and playing great dodgeball. Caleb and the Bobcats are becoming the benchmark example for young teams. I expect them to come ready to prove they belong and get some quality wins and maybe an upset.
University Of Akron
This has not been a good year for the Zips so far, as wins are concerned, but this tournament may prove to be the difference maker. We will be bringing almost 20 players for the first time ever, and will have all of our top players. I expect this to be the turnaround for us this season.
Miami University
ZM: It’s good to have Miami back in the League, but they are still young. Plenty to learn and plenty to accomplish. This “old” team is going up against the “new” faces in the State of Ohio: an unknown Baldwin Wallace, a full rostered Akron, and their hosts Ohio with something to prove. Being at the bottom of the pack just means you’re set up to shop shop shock! -zm
Gonzalez Exchanges
| Time | High Seed | Low Seed | Rating | Rating | Predicted Exchange | Exchange if Upset |
| 11:00 | Kent | WKU | 44.893 | 42.564 | 0.767 | 1.233 |
| 11:00 | BW | Miami | 36.571 | 34.438 | 0.787 | 1.213 |
| 11:00 | BGSU | Akron | 40.679 | 35.366 | 0.469 | 1.531 |
| 12:30 | BGSU | Ohio | 41.148 | 35.768 | 0.462 | 1.538 |
| 12:30 | CMU | WKU | 48.594 | 41.797 | 0.320 | 1.680 |
| 12:30 | Kent | BW | 45.660 | 37.358 | 0.170 | 1.830 |
| 2:00 | CMU | Ohio | 48.914 | 35.306 | 0.010 | 2.000 |
| 2:00 | BGSU | BW | 41.610 | 37.188 | 0.558 | 1.442 |
| 2:00 | Akron | Miami | 34.897 | 33.651 | 0.875 | 1.125 |
| 3:30 | CMU | Kent | 48.924 | 45.830 | 0.691 | 1.309 |
| 3:30 | WKU | Akron | 41.477 | 35.773 | 0.430 | 1.570 |
| 3:30 | Ohio | Miami | 35.296 | 32.776 | 0.748 | 1.252 |
Zigmas: The current success rate of the Gonzalez system is 81.33% where about 4 games in 5 will be correctly predicted. That’s 208 technical upsets in 1114 ranked matches. This is objectively based on past data, and only extends to win/loss scenarios. Certainly, you can’t predict the future 100%, and the possibility for any team to win is there.
In a recent attempt to predict matches even better than the basic four-fifths rate, I’ve considered we can use the data of the remaining one-fifth to augment that 80%ish ratio into either the positive or the negative. For upset exchanges, the predicted result was initially 0.730… which translates to a rating gap of just 2.705 points (=1-0.7295 with rounding). Any close match has the greater potential to be an upset, but matches around this rating gap are more likely based on historical upset data. That’s the predictive attempt, anyway.
My notes in the prediction section are based on standard deviations from the mean of a predicted result. So one standard deviation of a predicted exchange would be between .460 and .999, about 68% of past technical upsets fall within these predicted exchanges. Granted, this is tempered by the amount of upset matches, which only numbers 208 technical upsets right now. With 12 matches played at Ohio, expect around 2 technical upsets. (2.24=12*.1867) -zm
Predictions
Kent v WKU
Colby Briceland: I believe this might be one of the closer match-ups on a normal occasion, but I have a feeling that WKU might fall a little short. By the way that these teams play so similarly, I expect this game to be high scoring. 5-3 Kent
Hunter Ford: I feel very mixed about this game because both teams like to be gunslingers, and both have done a good job with it this season. Look for this to be a high scoring matchup. 4-2 Kent
Colin O’Brien: I think a full squad of Kent State will be able to handle an undermanned WKU squad easily. Kent 4-0
Zigmas: Smack in the middle of the predicted exchange, Kent holds the basic favor but WKU is not out. This exchange is the second closest exchange to the mean upset predicted exchange. If an upset were to happen it would rank 100th upset overall, 51 percentile. (100th/51%)
Jacob Leski: I see this being a competitive game, but one the Golden Flashes should have no trouble taking care of. 5-1 Kent
Caleb Arnold: I don’t see this one going much in favor of WKU. With Kent beating WKU in Kentucky when they had subs, I don’t see WKU pulling away and they’ve already said they aren’t bringing even fifteen. With Kent out to prove their worth, I see them up in this one. 3-0 Kent
Baldwin Wallace v Miami
CB: This game should be a good one, Miami being a young team and BW having a rebuilding season, I’m going to have to give this one to experience. 3-2 BW (OT)
HF: Unfortunately can’t say I know much about either of these sides. Only thing I do know is that BW has a little bit more experience than most of Miami’s squad. 2-1 BW
COB: I have no idea what to make of these teams due to Miami coming back this season and BW playing in their first tournament of the season. 3-2 Miami
ZM: Miami can still be considered a provisional rating until they get more matches under their belt, but it will be good to see Baldwin Wallace play some matches this season, as well as some solid matches for Miami. Another middle match with the potential of a Miami upset not far off, but BW with the current favor. If Upset: 108th, 48%
JL: This one is a toss up in my opinion. However, Baldwin Wallace is playing their first game of the season. A lot of turnover from last year. Interested to see whether they bring a full squad or not. Miami (OH) is thirsty for their first win. I expect them to get it. 3-2 Miami (OH)
CA: It honestly is hard to say on this one because no one knows what is happening up at Baldwin Wallace. With Miami 0-8 and BW 0-2 due to forfeits from not coming, it will be tough to see what happens. I think what may bring BW over the top is experience. 2-0 BW
BGSU v Akron
CB: I’m obviously a bit bias and BG has been a thorn in my team’s side all season, and I have to give credit where it is due, but BG hasn’t played a full Akron squad this season. 3-1 Akron
HF: This should be a fun one. Both teams have a lot of history with each other and will be looking to get some major points to help their position in the standings. Akron will be traveling with a full team for the first time in awhile, so I will give them an edge. 3-2 Akron
COB: I like what I saw out of BGSU back in November with their catching ability. BGSU 3-2
ZM: Bowling Green with the statistical favor, and an Akron the statistical underdog, a technical upset would be significant and weighty. While Akron has hovered around their current rating with a minor downward trend, BGSU is on a uptick this season. If Upset: 26th, 87%
JL: Due to BGSU’s large amount of games played (21) I expect them to be more than prepared for this match-up. Another reason I cannot pick Akron is I swear every time I pick them to win they get crushed. Doing them a favor by not picking them. BGSU 4-2
CA:Both of these teams have shown what they can do. I have Bowling Green over the top due to having a few players with more experience. BGSU is said to be bringing close to eighteen and it’s some of their tops players. Akron is said to be bringing close to twenty. The thing I have beating Akron is a lot of inexperience. Their tops guys can compete with the best of them but there is a huge skill gap between their top guys to the next. 3-2 BG (OT)
BGSU at Ohio
CB: This one is going to be a nail-biter, and I cannot wait to watch it, while history favors BG, I have to give the “W” to Caleb and the Bobcats, their overtime curse will end here. 3-2 OU (OT)
HF: Another interesting matchup. I think Ohio benefits from getting a chance to watch BGSU for a bit and playing on their home court. That being said, it really could go either way. Here’s to hoping Ohio gets their very first overtime win of the year! 2-1 Ohio OT
COB: What I just said in reference to the last game, but in OT because apparently Ohio is going after my record of most career OT losses. BGSU 3-2 OT
ZM: After their match with Akron, BGSU faces a hungry host in Ohio. The spotlight’s going to be on BG. Ohio is poised to upset, fresh in their first match of the day, against a BGSU possibly tired from a potential upset in the prior round. If Upset: 24th, 88%
JL: I think this is going to be the match of the day. Two teams that have gone toe to toe with each other all year. I hope this game is filmed. Going to have to go with the home team on this one even though I believe BGSU is on a hot streak right now. 3-2 OT Ohio
CA: Guess what? Both teams are going into overtime AGAIN in my prediction. This time, I’m taking OU over BGSU.The reason I am taking OU over BGSU is not because of the home advantage or anything. It’s because it’s been overtime after overtime and I am feeling that OU can clinch the win this time. The question is will their overtime six be able to take on the experience of BGSU’S overtime six? 2-1 OU (OT)
CMU v WKU
CB: While CMU has been put under a microscope as of late, they are still a great team, which cannot be disputed. The Hilltoppers will put forth a valiant effort, but will fall to the Chips. 5-1 CMU
HF: CMU sort of became the scapegoat during some recent Facebook disputes, whether justly or not. I think this tournament will be their wakeup call, and potentially for the rest of the league, that this team is better than their record has shown thus far. 3-1 CMU
COB: Don’t poke the bear. CMU 7-0
ZM: This would be one of those 95th percentile upsets that would be statistically significant in the history of the League, but that means CMU has the much higher probability for the win. That said, I’d like to see WKU make a splash here, they’ve certainly risen this year, currently in the top ten. If Upset: 8th, 96%
JL: I expect this game to be over before it even begins. WKU has never traveled well (full 15) and history has a tendency to repeat itself. CMU is going to come out of the gates firing due to all of the shots they have been taking on social media. Going to be a bloodbath. CMU 8-0
CA: I have no idea what CMU is bringing this weekend. With all of the talk about their ranking recently, I see them bringing the heat though. WKU is a weak team against prominent catching teams and that’s exactly what CMU is. CMU is out to prove that they belong with the best. 4-0 CMU
Kent v BW
CB: While TJ and the rest of the BW squad can tend to pull out incredible dodgeball play, I think the Golden Flashes have this one in the bag. 5-0 Kent
HF: Cassie and Matt’s squad should be able to take care of business here. More experience, more talent, more everything. 4-0 Kent
COB: To put it simply, I think Kent is the better team. Kent 5-1
ZM: An unknown BW could gain major points if Kent isn’t careful. Kent is currently much where they left off at Nationals. Their matches in Athens will help sort out whether they lead the high mid section of the standings. They are currently #8 with a strong 2-3 games out from breaking the top seven. But as it stands, we can see Kent in a fairly healthy position to remain the leader of that high-mid section of the rankings. If Upset: 6th, 97%
JL: The Golden Flashes should be dominant in this one. I do not expect them to have much trouble containing a low-numbered BW team. Still very interested to see if this is a similar team to last years BW team, who was quite difficult to beat at times. 5-1 Kent
CA: Sorry Baldwin Wallace. If this was last season, I would see it being close. This season, Kent is tough and we have no idea about you guys. You will be shaking off the rust and be at the first tournament with new players. I see Kent taking an easy win in this one. If BW wants to prove they are as tough as last year, this is the game to do it for them. 5-0 Kent
CMU at Ohio
CB: CMU is going to put one foot on the gas, and never let up this whole tournament, I wish that it would be close, but it won’t be. 8-0 CMU
HF: Again, I think CMU has a lot of talent that will be on display here. However, I fully believe Ohio will come out hungry for a big win, and will keep the game competitive. 3-1 CMU
COB: DON’T. POKE. THE. BEAR. CMU 8-0
ZM: While it’s true that this match falls out of the min/max range for an exchange, we can learn a lot from how this match plays out. Last season, “OU” played each opponent with grace. I would express this match will be significant to both opponents, even if the match may not be statistically significant overall. If Upset: 1st, 100%
JL: Blows my mind that people are expecting this game to be close! Ohio was blown out against WKU 4-0! I give respect where it is due, but what evidence have the Bobcats shown that they can be competitive with a Michigan team? They haven’t, but now is their chance. Every mutual team they have played CMU has decimated and OU has lost to at least once. Expect the insulted Chippewas to refuse to lay off the gas pedal. CMU 10-0
CA:The last time Ohio played CMU, it was the third tournament for the young team and they took an 8-0 beating. I badly wanted to light a fire and put OU over CMU but I stayed calm. CMU is still tough. Ohio will have a full twenty and who knows what CMU has. I wouldn’t put it past OU to put up a good fight. 3-1 CMU
BGSU v BW
CB: I think BG will be out for blood in this match after loses to Akron and OU, I expect them to get into a groove and make something happen. 4-1 BG
HF: After a predicted 2 close losses on the day, I see BGSU getting their redemption here. A little break, on top of a predicted tough loss for BW against Kent I believe gives them the edge. 3-1 BGSU
COB: The experience of BGSU carries them through this one. BGSU 4-0
ZM: This is the closest match BG has on the day, but the end exchange will slightly depend on the close BW/Miami match earlier in the day. The favored BGSU will have posted two games earlier in the day as well, so ratings can change. If Upset: 49th, 76%
JL: Still not too sure what to expect from BW. I hope they prove me completely wrong and upset everyone. I have a lot of faith in this BGSU team. They seem to be peaking at the right time. 4-1 BGSU
CA:With both teams having this be their third game, I see it being slow but rather easy for BGSU to pull ahead on this one. With Bowling Green fighting for that five hundred win percentage for the first time in their history, they are out for a fight. 3-0 BGSU
Akron v Miami
CB: I have faith that my Zips can get this one done, our experience and numbers will prove to be too much for the young squad. 5-1 Akron
HF: The Zips should be able to handle this one. Miami is still a young team looking to get in a groove this year, but I don’t see it happening here. 4-1 Akron
COB: Same thing about experience, this time with Akron. Akron 4-0
ZM: With a potential rating gap under 2 points, we may see a competitive match here with the possibility of an upset. With both opponents in the second match of the day, we’re poised to a high weight exchange, but in Akron’s favor. If Upset: 146th, 29%
JL: Love what Kyle Shaw is doing with Miami’s program, however I do not see them picking up a victory from Akron. As said before, it seems like every time I pick them to win they lose so please prove me wrong. 4-0 Akron
CA: With Akron bringing almost a full roster, I don’t see Miami having much of a chance. Though, Akron may lose a couple top guys before this game due to Valentines Day urges, the score may not reach four points. I see Akron winning this easy. 3-1 Akron
CMU v Kent
CB: This will be a big match-up, but I think the stakes are highest for Kent State to prove that they can hang with the big kids. I see the Golden Flashes firing on all cylinders in this one, proving to be more than the Chips can handle. 3-2 Kent (OT)
HF: This will be both CMU and Kent’s biggest match of the day. For CMU, it will be their third match in a row and they will be playing against the next most talented team at the tournament besides themselves. At this point in the day, expect a little bit more conservative play from both sides. 2-1 CMU
COB: Y’ALL DONE POKED THE BEAR. CMU 5-0
ZM: This one could be interesting. This is a battle of two tiers. The historical data, in both this season and previous seasons, still dictates CMU the favorite here. But not by much. Kent is a solid competitor and CMU appears on the downtick. But I would favor the Chips, just don’t take my opinion as part of the system. If Upset: 76th, 68%
JL: These teams squared off in November. CMU won 6-0…with their top 5 starters sitting out the second half! Unless everyone else in this league knows something I do not, no disrespect to Kent State, but I expect this game to be over once again at halftime. CMU 5-0
CA: This game is personally going to be my favorite on the day. Kent State will be bringing a full twenty rumor has it and CMU is unknown to what they are bringing. Kent wants payback for the earlier season loss and they will do what they can to fight back. I have CMU though only because I have the slightest hope that their overtime six is a tough pick. This one honestly could go either way in my opinion. 3-2 CMU (OT)
WKU v Akron
CB: I think the Hilltoppers are a great team, but will be worn out because of their tough schedule and low numbers, the Zips have more than a full team and will be hyped up for this match after being close the other two times we’ve squared off. 4-3 Akron
HF: The Hilltoppers have a pretty tough schedule to start the day with games against CMU and Kent. I believe they take out their frustrations in this game. Akron will have some momentum coming off of a big win, but I don’t think it will be enough to stop WKU. 3-1 WKU
COB: This might be the closest game of the day, but I have Akron due to the numbers advantage. Akron 4-2
ZM: I don’t personally think that Western’s status is in debate, but this is the middle match for WKU and still weighty for both teams. We could see an Akron upset here, in the 92 percentile but 16th overall.
JL: I expect the Hilltoppers to continue their struggles in this tournament due to their lack of numbers. Akron will look to pick up a solid win, but I do not expect it to be easy. 4-3 Akron
CA: This is my bold prediction for the day. Though Akron may lose a couple to their lovers, they will still have a bigger roster to save some energy for the day. WKU on the other hand I’m sure will be gassed at this point with bringing less than fifteen. I’ve got Akron on this one though inexperience for some players could turn that around. 2-1 Akron
Ohio (home) v Miami
CB: As their last match-ups of the day, I believe that these two will play a bit more relaxed and maybe even more playful than the others, advantage to the home team. 3-0 OU
HF: Two young teams here at the end of the day so expect a little bit more sloppy play than usual. The host school should be able to take this one in what I expect to be a one-sided affair. 3-0 Ohio
COB: Ohio defends their home court in this one. Ohio 3-0
ZM: At the end of the day, anything can usually happen. An Ohio win at home is predicted, so we could see the first home win for Ohio. This is still a largely unknown Miami and this match is very close to an potential upset. If Upset: 95th, 54%
JL: Interested to see how this one turns out. If OU is that confident that they can beat a Michigan team right now, then I am more then confident that they can beat a first year team in Miami (OH). OU 4-0
CA: A rivalry in the making is my hopes. I’ve got OU winning this one. They beat Miami 5-0 at Miami’s own tournament. The only reason I don’t have more is because it’s the end of the day and it will probably get cut short due to dead arms and what not. 5-0 OU
Why is CMU going to this booty ass tourney?
I see you have a lot of respect for other teams in the league